Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 1043.253206 1188.384638 1351.885411 1550.800399 1787.702258 2062.609315 2408.373489
2025-05-11 830.175110 1019.470081 1254.211525 1571.173664 1994.953961 2552.288509 3358.419590
2025-05-18 728.594119 941.405445 1223.346778 1633.440416 2230.820501 3096.288262 4498.670217
2025-05-25 646.966051 868.721948 1177.784128 1654.421412 2398.658449 3567.890381 5659.892672
2025-06-01 578.171632 800.639750 1123.673737 1646.545876 2512.388341 3972.076612 6828.215355
2025-06-08 523.135862 743.633349 1075.255452 1635.152138 2612.089963 4368.569238 8108.159337
2025-06-15 488.311595 711.662077 1059.110883 1670.396946 2794.015624 4951.269438 9971.471017
2025-06-22 441.330065 655.181969 996.337723 1615.543349 2800.231120 5195.139720 11184.997859
2025-06-29 403.161621 608.623804 944.007452 1570.479319 2814.831632 5457.099026 12548.848786
2025-07-06 368.927898 565.125557 891.889465 1517.974869 2804.036068 5660.064847 13848.795602
2025-07-13 356.126692 555.884244 897.373941 1573.880591 3027.087668 6456.833722 17242.076239
2025-07-20 338.871649 537.338062 884.145997 1590.972827 3169.118137 7099.117913 20543.045527
2025-07-27 323.620346 521.838367 876.460065 1621.818914 3358.313711 7951.603570 25281.048317
2025-08-03 308.249047 504.918635 864.649502 1643.244019 3533.306164 8839.874688 30974.292535
2025-08-10 299.458036 498.994889 872.950129 1709.118389 3835.328979 10230.349580 40329.536153
2025-08-17 286.632483 484.388401 862.518280 1731.323898 4029.183760 11366.137634 49892.407791
2025-08-24 271.914326 464.954270 840.345254 1722.988226 4137.786546 12263.339687 59409.871442
2025-08-31 258.181385 446.315389 817.958249 1710.929809 4233.838782 13165.572381 70458.130159
2025-09-07 250.008874 437.827688 815.869575 1748.234556 4487.869561 14820.401779 90325.463177
2025-09-14 234.430980 413.561345 777.964259 1690.179910 4432.021592 15164.763749 100094.633544
2025-09-21 220.958794 392.641258 745.611273 1642.507064 4400.768956 15617.432407 112163.481226
2025-09-28 207.911627 371.778997 711.776648 1586.987464 4333.047595 15883.945346 123237.171010
2025-10-05 204.420228 370.158716 720.427158 1646.104572 4672.345806 18333.165843 168455.729133